Stock Market 2012 and afterwards

****** Welcome 2012 ******
Wish you all a very very happy and prosperous NEW YEAR 2012

Here is my new count for US stock market and as well as the global economy.

Long term Count – Bear market started in late 2007,may have bottomed after a simple
primary ABC waves decline in march 2009 and we are in for a new multi-year,multi-decade bull
market.This bull market will also be 5 primary waves namely I,II,III,IV and Vth waves where we are still in
primary wave I since march’09 where major wave 1 went from spx 666 bear market low to 956 level
in june’09,major 2 bottomed @869 in july’09.From there we went in major 3 wave which topped
in may’10 @ spx 1371 level.we can easily sub-divide that major 3 into 5 minor waves as wave
(i)->1219,(ii)->1010,(iii)->1344,(iv)->1249,(v)->1371.After that we went down in major 4th
wave which bottomed last October @1075 level.As major 2nd wave was very short so we got bigger 4th
wave here.From then we are in major 5th wave which should go much above the 1371 level to complete the
primary wave I of this ongoing bull market.

Short term Count-From the 4th wave low of spx1075 level we are in major 5th wave in which we about to complete the minor
wave (i) above 1293 level sometime in january’12 and will go down in (ii)nd wave correction till 1160 kind of level
later this year before getting into the minor (iii)rd wave upmove which should easily go past the 1371 high.

US(BEAR) Market Update

My Observation of this Bear
market movement since May’s 1371
top that we are in strong P3 or C wave of Bear market,started Oct’07 at 1576 level.In this C wave market will be in five waves decline and we are currently in 1st wave of this five waves fall.After finding bottom for this 1st wave market will be in good bounce in 2nd wave,which can go all the way to 1340-50 kind of level next year.
In the short term market is in between two counts one is 4th wave which should go above 1208 before the final 5th bottoms for this 1st wave of bear market around 1090-1100 level.
Another count is we are in (v)th wave
of 3rd which should bottom next week 1090-1100 level,after that 4th wave will go to 1200-1210 before the final 5th bottoms for this 1st wave of bear market in Oct’11 around 1060 kind of level.
So whichever count it follows,one thing for sure that market will be in between 1100-1200 level atleast next couple of months.

NO MORE BYE BYE , NOW BUY BUY INDIA

Indian market about to bottom for its primary (IV)th wave around 4700-4800 level next week,so BUY NOW with a closing stop loss of 4700 nifty level.My upside target for this bull market is sensex 22k nifty 6.6k next year.

US market UPDATE (long term)

Now market in between Two probable counts to follow in rest of the year and next year.
Probability ONE-Super cycle 1 bull market ended in oct’07 since then we are in SC2 bear market.In this bear market which should be three wave ABC correction of prior bull market,we had A wave done in march’09 at spx666 level,B most likely done at spx1371 level in may’11,we are now in C wave which should go down bellow the A wave bottom spx666 in next few years to conclude this SC2 bear market.
Probability TWO- In march’09 we may have completed the Primary wave (IV) of the SC1 bull market which was a flat.since then we may be in Primary wave (V) of this bull market which might conclude next year making life time highs.Current downtrend since may’11 may be Intermediate wave (IV) of Primary wave (V) which should bottom throgh three wave downmove.
If we get five wave down here then Probability 1 gets confirmed and current downmove should be denoted as 1st wave of Primary C wave of SC2 bear market.All confusion should be cleared before september end

Global Market Long Term Count Update

What a week and a half have gone for global market.huge fall then Wild swings,it was impossible to count waves.Now it looks calm enough to count and predict the future action.
US market is in correction since may’s 1371 level.Now it is confirmed that three waves advance since march’09 spx666 level have completed in last may’s 1371 high.Market now has two posibilities,one is very bullish which will take market to new lifetime high next year.And other count is bear market ahead us which will take market bellow spx666 level.
Now we need to watch how the current downtrend ends,if it ends with 3 waves in which I’m betting on,then 1st count will play and market will make new lifetime high.If it ends in 5,then after some rebound market will be in long lasting bear market.
For others markets like bvsp,nifty and other asian market are still in their bull market 4th wave which should bottom soon and will launch for 5th and final upmove to conclude their bull market.
Now my updated target for nifty to get bottomed for its 4th wave is 4800 in august end or early september.Spx may bottom around 1090 level,bvsp around 47k.

UPDATE

SPX will bottom around 1180 for its (iv)th of C wave and Indian market will bottom for its 4th wave around 5100 nifty and 17k sensex level in this month’s end.

SPX long term count update

My preferred count for spx since march’09 is that we are in C wave which started july’09 at spx 869 level.C(i) done at 1219 in april’10, C(ii) at 1010 in july’10, C(iii) at 1371 in may’11 and we are now in C(iv) which should bottom above 1219 probably at 1230 in august’11 and push the market for final C(v) upmove to complete the ABC correction to this BEAR MARKET which started Oct’07 at spx 1576 level.